Monday, January 08, 2007

Why 4-0 will lose you money in Vegas

Yes, I did indeed pick the winners of all four playoff games this weekend. I'll wait for the applause................thank you. However, against the spread set by Vegas odds makers, I was only 2-2, which is exactly what Vegas loves to see. On my wins, I'd still lose the vig, or about 10%, to the house. That's why I said don't go to Vegas with my picks. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vig
I'm not sure if there would be a place that would take the wagers straight up, without the spread, but there might be if you picked all four. dejesus freak will probably know.

My DirectTV installer showed up at 1:00 on the button, the front end of the 1-4 window. How sweet is that? And man was he a quick working, solid pro. Good stuff. Turns out he doesn't work for DirectTV at all. He was an independent contractor because working for DirectTV directly, "Doesn't pay well at all." Well, this guy was certainly better than the DirectTV guy that came out three times to get me up and running initially, so I'm happy! He even ran another line to my second television where I moved my first Tivo recorder. So now I have an HD recorder and a regular DVR! Sweet!!!!

Ok, now my thoughts on next week's Bears game. The Seahawks looked pretty dismal against the Cowboys in winning 21-20 on Romo's dropped hold (thank you Ms. Underwood!). It turns out (and somehow I missed this while doing research to make my picks), the Seahawks had two cornerbacks that were out of football only two weeks ago! So of course you think the Cowboys are going to throw to T.O., Terry Glenn and Jason Witten and just scorch the former self proclaimed "America's team". Nope. The Cowboys barely did anything through the air. The real funny thing is that I'm hearing how the Bears are going to take advantage of the "banged up Seahawks secondary" and how we need to "establish the run but don't forget to throw against the banged up secondary." Ugh. Those three Cowboy receivers are ALL better than any of our receivers. We've got no shot through the air, especially with Grossman.

I'm actually feeling better about the Bears chances, but it has more to do with how bad Seattle played than how well I think the Bears can do. Now I hear Darrell Jackson will be back for the Bears game, after aggravating an injury that caused him to miss three games. Shaun Alexander didn't play the first time around, when the Bears won 37-6, and neither did Jerramy Stevens. More importantly though, the first match up was when Tommie Harris was in the lineup and Mike Brown was yet to be hurt. We were getting a lot more pressure on the QB (5 sacks that game with 2 by Harris) and really haven't regained that look in almost two months.

I'll be at the game cheering, but it could be a long day.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

One way you can avoid the point spread is to make what is known as a "money line" bet. Here, the difference between the two teams is not reflected by a point spread, but by the respective payouts you'd get back on a winning bet.

For instance, suppose you saw a line that said:

Pittsburgh -180
Cleveland +160

This means that if you bet on Pittsburgh, you would need to wager $180 to win $100 (plus your money back for a $280 payout). On the other hand, a successful $100 bet on Cleveland would win $160 (for a payout of $260). In this example, Pittsburgh would be the favorite because you would have to wager more to win less.

You need not bet those actual amounts, of course; casinos will accept smaller bets on those percentages. Also, the casino will still make money in the form of vigorish (or "vig"), but this is reflected in the payouts between the two bets.

Oh, and since Joe mentioned it, many casinos allow one to avoid the spread if they make what's called a "parlay" bet. This is when you bet on two games or more and must guess correctly on all games in order to win. For instance, on a four-team parlay, if you get three games correct but miss one, you lose the parlay bet. Casinos may differ on how many games must be parlayed to avoid the point spread, however; some may only do this if you bet on at least three games.

Probably more information than you want to know, but Joe asked . . .

Anonymous said...

It's going to be pretty hard for Chicago to win when they have to play against the most valuable defensive player in the league - Rex Grossman!

Lakeview Coffee Joe said...

That's why I asked dejesus! You da'man. Turns out I COULD have made money in Vegas. Damnit!!

Lakeview Coffee Joe said...

Oh, and I should have remembered the money line aspect of betting. I haven't done it, but I knew it existed. The parlay's I wasn't sure about. Thanks man.

Anonymous said...

No problemo. I've never parlayed so I'm only reasonably sure of what it entails. I imagine casinos may have different specific rules.

As for money line bets, if I recall correctly, some casinos may offer different money lines *with* a spread too. In other words, if you are willing to give up (or get) points, you would get a different payout if you win.

They do all sorts of wacky things in casinos. On the other hand, I know very little about the mechanics of investing. It's all gambling either way.