Short entry today as I prepare for the Bears game and the tailgating associated with it. Today I split the games, losing the Indy/Baltimore game and winning the Saints/Eagles game. That Baltimore game though had some plays that went against me that could have easily made up the 9 pts the Ravens lost by:
1) Todd Heap, the Ravens all-world tight end, fumbled for the first time in over a year. C'mon! I can't predict that!
2) Baltimore's QB, Steve McNair, threw an interception on the 1 yard line. C'mon!! That was going to be a sure 7 points. Damn.
3) Indy's kicker, the great Adam Vinatieri, hit a 51 yard field goal that he caromed off the goal post. C'mon! He's good, but I bet even he didn't call the "bank". Bastard.
Well, the big game is about 13 hours away. On the menu: egg, cheese and ham sandwiches on English muffins (with chipotle cheese!), maple flavored sausage, bloody Mary's (or bloody Maria's if I make them with tequila), three-pepper chili (made with red, green and yellow peppers as well as both ground beef and spicy breakfast sausage) and afterwards, we have more chili along with chicken fingers and spicy chicken wings. Should be good eating!!! The weather is supposed to be bad, but we'll prevail. Go Bears!!!!
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6 comments:
I think I may actually have see some of Saturday's games. Late night in an expat bar. Thanks to this blog, I sounded only 90% like an ignorant female.
That's a copout, Joe, and you should know it. Every game has things that are unpredictable and unexpected; otherwise, there would be no point in playing them in the first place. The whole point of making a prediction is to account for what you believe should happen, all things considered -- including turnovers near the goal line, etc.
Quit whining.
Furthermore, as for Vinatieri, if you don't think you could have predicted that he would make a 51 yard field goal, you deserve to lose. We're talking about the most clutch kicker in history here, a guy who hit a 45 yard field goal in the middle of a blizzard to win a playoff game a few years back. You don't think he could hit a 51 yarder in normal conditions?
Glad I could help out at least a little Alexis! Trust me, few things are more appealing to a guy than women who can talk sports. Well, at least most guys.
I absolutely don't think that Vinatieri could have predicted that he would carom his kick off the upright and have it go through. That's what I said and I stick to it.
And I disagree again dejesus, regarding the all things considered. Predictions are made on the recurring normalcy of events and when events stray from those likely probabilities, out of the ordinary results happen. I was simply citing what I considered unlikely events that contributed to an out of the ordinary result.
You're being a baby, Joe.
When you make a prediction, you are assessing what you believe will happen, taking into account what you believe the probabilities to be. One of these probabilities -- one of the "recurring normalcy of events" -- is that unusual, improbable events do and will occur in every game. That's the point.
In every game, unusual events happen. Sometimes, it's a sure-handed receiver dropping a pass in the end zone. Sometimes, it's Brian Urlacher slipping on the turf and allowing a runner to get by him for a touchdown. Sometimes, it's a gust of wind blowing the ball away from Sean Landeta as he's trying to punt the ball. Sometimes, it's Neifi Perez hitting a home run. Sometimes, it's a kid hitting a 45' shot at the buzzer. These things happen and when you make a prediction, you need to take into account the fact that some unusual events will occur (you just don't know which ones).
Furthermore, when you get a prediction right, do you refuse to take credit because of the unusual events that go your way? I'm not just talking about Tony Romo dropping a snap; I'm talking about everytime a wide open reciever drops a pass for a sure touchdown -- or that Rex Grossman actually manages to hit a streaking Bernard Berrian with a long pass.
Finally, some of the things you cited are not all that uncommon. You really think that it's freaky for a quarterback to throw an interception in the red zone? I saw Rex Grossman do the same thing yesterday. I saw Peyton Manning do it last week.
Likewise, as for Vinatieri, you're just nuts. If his kick sailed cleanly through the uprights, would you still be complaining? Either way, we're talking about a guy who's a walking rabbit's foot. If you don't think it's likely that he could kick a 51 yard field goal or that a bounce will go his way, you deserve to lose.
How can you take into account improbable events? By their very definition you can't because you don't what they are or how they are going to impact the game. That's ridiculous.
And I do think it's uncommon for a running based team with a conservative offensive scheme and a mature polished quarterback like McNair to throw an interception. Yeah, that's uncommon. Not for Grossman because he lacks talent and not for Manning because they (until recently) didn't have a run game. It's easier to pick them off if you know the play is going to be a pass or if the QB sucks.
I would never bet against Vinatieri hitting a 51 yard field goal, but he hit the upright and it STILL went in. It's probably less than 50-50 that if you hit an upright that the ball will still go through.
Anyway, it's my only loss in two weeks and I thought the entry was more funny than anything, hence calling AV a bastard.
You can't take into account specific improbable events, but you can (and should) take into account the fact that improbable events will occur.
Every sporting event, whether it be football, baseball, basketball, or whatever, has events take place which are uncommon or even rare. That's one of the things that makes sports interesting. If it isn't Todd Heap fumbling, it might be Jamal Lewis fumbling 3 times. If it isn't McNair throwing an interception at the goal line, it might be something else -- maybe a game winning TD being called back because of an inadvertent whistle. Who knows.
Yes, there's a lot of chance, but that's true in every game and, by extension, every prediction. Deal with it. I missed most of the game, but I'm sure that if I see it again this week, I can probably spot some breaks that went the Ravens way as well.
As for Vinatieri, I don't for a moment think that when a ball hits the crossbar, it is more probable that it doesn't bounce over the post. Most of the time I see that happen, the spin and momentum of the ball carries it through. I *especially* think that if there is someone who would get that break, it will be Vinatieri. Quit whining.
If you really want to complain about the bounces going against you, your "predictions" should be pretty easy -- just pick the favorites each time. That way, if the underdog wins, you can always complain about how you *should* have won and that you were right all along.
I'm not a football expert by any means and the reasoning behind your picks makes sense to me, but the beauty about sports is that improbable things do happen (remember the Immaculate Reception?) Too bad.
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